Ashland, Oregon 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

201
FXUS66 KMFR 142359
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
459 PM PDT Thu Aug 14 2025

.SHORT TERM...A weak upper trough is over the region today
bringing generally mild to warm temperatures. Expect breezy to
gusty afternoon/evening winds today across most inland areas. On
Friday, an upper low moving south out of the Gulf of Alaska will
bring a front towards the area. Ahead of the front, expect
continued mild temperatures on Friday and breezy to gusty
afternoon/evening winds.

With this front nearing the area on Friday, models indicate high
precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.9 inches along and off the
coast. As this moist front gradually pushes inland from the coast
to the Cascades late Friday afternoon through Saturday morning,
expect rain to develop at the coast and spread into northwest and
western portions of the area. The National Blend of Models
supports rainfall of 0.15 to 0.5 inches along the coast and
inland across Douglas County. For areas south of the Umpqua
Divide, lighter amounts, ranging from 0.01 to 0.20 inches, are
forecast. Areas east of the Cascades across northern Klamath and
northwest Lake County are expected to see rain showers spread into
the area Saturday morning.

Then, Saturday afternoon, as this front gradually shifts east of
the Cascades, combined with daytime instability and upper level
dynamics there is a potential for a mix of showers (20-50% chance)
and thunderstorms (20% chance), mainly from the Cascades east and
Siskiyous southward. West of the Cascades, the chances for
thunderstorms are lower (5-10% chance in central/eastern Douglas,
Josephine and western/central Jackson counties, except 15% near
Ashland and Butte Falls).

This front will slowly shift east/southeast late Saturday into
Sunday but may linger over southeast portions of the CWA.
Meanwhile, an upper trough will become centered offshore with a
southwest flow aloft. This pattern, with sufficient moisture and
instability, will favor chances for showers (20-40%) and
thunderstorms (15-30%) on Sunday, mainly across central and
eastern portions of the area. Confidence is lower in exactly which
areas will see showers and thunderstorms. Overall, the National
Blend of Models favors areas from the western slopes of the
Southern Oregon Cascades eastward and across eastern Siskiyou into
Modoc counties. West of the Cascades, in eastern Douglas,
Josephine and Jackson counties, chances are lower, 15-25% for
showers and 10-15% for thunderstorms. The area for any showers and
thunderstorms to develop may shift too, depending on the timing
and track of the upper trough and front. So, we will continue to
monitor and update this portion of the forecast as more details
emerge.


Monday through Wednesday, we will remain under a southwest but
likely, drier flow, with an upper low/trough centered to the
northwest and a strong upper level ridge building to the east,
centered over the Rocky Mountain west. Ensembles favor warming
temperatures, with high temperatures near normal on Monday then
rising above normal Tuesday into Wednesday across inland areas.


&&

.AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs...Gusty NW winds, especially over inland
areas this evening will ease after sunset. The marine layer is
expected to return again this evening and overnight, with IFR/LIFR
conditions along the coast and low VFR (perhaps MVFR) ceilings
in the Umpqua Basin. Patchy light rain/drizzle may occur along the
coast again. Elsewhere, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF
period. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, August 14, 2025...A weak
thermal trough is bringing gusty winds south of Port Orford.
Steep wind-driven seas will continue through early this evening. A
front will approach the area tonight with winds and seas
diminishing. This front will bring periods of rain to much of the
coastal waters late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
Westerly swell will build in Friday night into the weekend. Seas
may approach near criteria on Saturday as this swell builds into
the waters but likely will remain just below small craft advisory
levels. West- northwest seas will lower Sunday night into Monday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, August 14,
2025...Temperatures will trend cooler through the remainder of the
week with below normal temperatures expected over the weekend.
Breezy to gusty winds will continue during the afternoons and
evenings, but with temperatures trending cooler, daytime RHs will
trend higher so this will mitigate fire weather concerns today and
Friday.

Friday into the weekend, low pressure in the Gulf of Alaska will
maintain gusty winds in the region, but also send a wetter front
through the area. This system looks quite similar to the one that
moved through the Pacific Northwest early last week, but
precipitation chances will extend farther south comparatively so.
Our region will still be on the tail end of this front so we don`t
expect much precipitation for inland locations. That said, there are
fairly high chances (70-90%) for measurable precipitation (0.01")
along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin, with around a 40-60%
chance for the Rogue/Illinois/Applegate Valleys and a 60-80% chance
for the Cascades. Precipitation chances are lower for areas farther
south and east, generally 20-40%, but higher (40-60%) north of
Chiloquin/Summer Lake. Again, we don`t expect a soaking rain like
what will be experienced farther north, but there`s currently a 80-
90% chance for 0.10" and 50-70% chance for 0.25" along the coast
north of Cape Blanco and into the Umpqua Basin for late Friday into
Saturday. South of the Umpqua Divide, chances for even a 0.10" drop
to 20-40% here in the Rogue Valley, but remain in the 30-50% range
for the Illinois Valley. Given the time of year and that we are on
the tail end of the front, it feels overly optimistic to advertise
this rain potential in mid-August, but the majority of guidance
holds steady in showing the front holding together enough for at
least areas along and west of the Cascades to see some rain. At the
very least for inland areas south of the Umpqua Divide and east of
the Cascades, we`ll see increased cloud cover, increased daytime
humidities and below normal temperatures over the weekend which will
limit fire weather concerns.

Thunderstorms are in the forecast for this weekend for areas along
and east of the Cascades. Much will depend on timing of the front,
isolated to scattered thunderstorms could occur ahead of the front
Saturday afternoon. There could be enough cloud cover to limit
instability, but models indicate enough instability over
southeastern Klamath/Lake, eastern Siskiyou and Modoc Counties for a
few storms to develop (15-25% chance). On Sunday, it looks like part
of the front stalls over the region and with lingering
moisture/instability in the area, thunderstorms could develop again
Sunday afternoon across northern California. Any thunderstorms that
develop will be wet, so we`ll see how the high resolution models
look when they encompass that time frame before deciding on any
needed products. /BR-y

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$

CC/CC/CC